The Inflation Research Group (ENGrup) recently announced that the real inflation rate in February 2022 was 114,87 percent, compared to February 2021.
This is more than double the rate reported by the official statistics of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), which announced today that the country’s annual consumer price index increased by only 48,69 percent.
Erdogan owes much of his popularity to Turkey’s economic growth between 2002 and 2013. World Bank statistics show that Turkey’s GDP was 240 billion when Erdogan first came to power in 2002. This figure quadrupled in 2013 to hit an all-time-high, reaching 957 billion.
A similar success story could be told about the country’s inflation rate, which had somewhat stabilized at 7-8 percent between 2004 and 2016, after exceeding 100 percent in 1994.
However, the economy has taken a U-turn over the last few years. Turkey is going through a serious economic meltdown, and it is a well-established fact that Erdogan has total control over all of the government bodies in the country, including those in charge of keeping statistics and announcing the country’s economic indicators.
Even the Turkish Statistical Institute and Turkish Central Bank (TCMB), which are supposed to be independent, have been making decisions according to Erdogan’s whims and his non-orthodox views on the economy.
How can they not? Since 2019, Erdogan has sacked three TCMB governors. The presidents of the Turkish Statistical Institute faired no better – four TUIK presidents have been sacked by Erdogan within the last three years, the latest being Sait Erdal Dinçer who was discharged on 28 January this year and replaced by Erhan Çetinkaya.
Turkey’s economic situation doesn’t look good and is likely to worsen in the coming months, and Erdogan is well aware of its impact on his declining popularity.
However, forcing government agencies to announce figures that paint a false picture of the economy doesn’t seem to be working.
TUIK’s and TCMB’s official figures don’t reflect what the average citizens see in the market.
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